Takehito IIZUKA
Research Topic
Construction of prediction model for COVID-19 cases based on causal relationship
Research Abstract
COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2 has caused a massive outbreak worldwide, and infections are regularly increased in Japan also. Forecasting COVID-19 cases could be one of the guidelines for employing countermeasures and actions to prevent an increase in the number of new infections. For case number prediction, it is necessary to find parameters that have a causal relationship with the case number. For example, virus concentration in sewage is reflecting the number of persons who get infected in a sewershed, which allows us to use the virus concentration as one of the explanatory variables in the case number prediction. The purpose of this study is to investigate multiple parameters, including virus concentration in sewage that have a causal relationship with the COVID-19 case number for constructing a model to predict the number of new cases.